New Delhi [India], September 30 (ANI): In a long-range forecast of rainfall the post-monsoon season on Friday, India Meteorological Department said that normal to above normal rainfall is likely over most parts of India except some regions of Northwest India and some parts of Northeast India where below normal rainfall is likely.

New Delhi Feb 21 PTI Private weather forecasting agency Skymet has predicted a normal monsoon this year which is expected to finish around the normal ranges midway mark of 96 to 104 per cent of the long period average of 8806mmThe agency said it is in the process of gathering data sets pertinent for a comprehensive monsoon forecast and intends to release a detailed report in AprilAscertaining authenticity is absolutely essential and that is a long-drawn procedure Therefore it is a bit premature to share the collated figures but suffice to present preliminary guidance it said in a statementMonsoon has large inter-annual fluctuations in its arrival intensity duration and withdrawalIt is rather early to decode all these aspects at this stage But there are precursors to get an early glimpse and gauge its health during the four-month-long season Skymet saidThe last two monsoon seasons have been driven by back-to-back La Nina events which have started shrinking now the agency saidIt also means that monsoon 2022 is going to be a devolving La Nina to start with and turn neutral later Negative sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are weakeningThis warming inclination of the Pacific Ocean albeit within neutral limits may not lead to an above-normal or excess rainfall but chances of a corrupt monsoon are also ruled out it said This could be one of the normal monsoon years making a robust start and finishing around the midway mark of the normal range -- 96 per cent to 104 per cent of LPA 8806mm it saidG P Sharma President Meteorology and Climate Change Skymet Weather said After observing back-to-back La Nina during 2020 and 2021 the chances of yet another episode is statistically ruled out The sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are likely to rise soon and the probability of continued La Nina will fall However ENSO predictability decreases during the upcoming spring barrier and at times leads to an unstable ENSO regime he saidThis will get factored in our April forecast While the monsoon trough is over the South Tropical Indian Ocean Indian Ocean Dipole events are typically unable to form till April Sharma notedReliable trends of Indian Ocean Dipole emerge in the latter half of it Early indications suggest it to be neutral but leaning close to the negative threshold IOD-ENSO interaction will hold the key to the overall health of Indian Summer Monsoon 2022 he said The El Nino-Southern Oscillation ENSO is an irregular cycle of change in wind and sea surface temperatures over the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean affecting the climate of much of the tropics and subtropicsThe warming phase of the sea temperature is known as El Nino and the cooling phase as La Nina El Nino has been generally known to suppress monsoon rainfall in India while La Nina increases itIndian Ocean Dipole also known as Indian Nino is an irregular oscillation of sea-surface temperature in which the Western Indian Ocean becomes alternately warmer and then colder than the eastern part of the ocean IOD has three phases -- neutral negative and positivePositive IOD events are beneficial for the monsoon and negative IOD obstructs the progression of the monsoon over IndiaIn 2021 the country received normal rainfall during the four-month southwest monsoon season from June to September -- 87 cm against the LPA of 88 cm of 1961-2010It was the third consecutive year that India recorded rainfall in the normal or above-normal category PTI GVS NSD NSD

Geneva [Switzerland], January 19 (ANI): The year 2021 was one of the seven warmest years on record, according to six leading international datasets consolidated by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), a UN agency.

Pune (Maharashtra) [India], September 19 (ANI): Large volcanic eruptions can help to forecast the monsoon over India - the seasonal rainfall that is key for the country's agriculture and thus for feeding one billion people. As erratic as they are, volcanic eruptions improve the predictability, an Indian-German research team finds.