New Delhi [India], September 24 (ANI): Amidst the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) on Friday informed that even if the third wave comes in the country, its intensity will be low.

New Delhi Sep 17 PTI There will not be a third wave of COVID-19 of the size and consequence the country witnessed during the second wave unless there is a new variant of coronavirus top vaccinologist Gagandeep Kang said FridayShe stressed the need to develop better vaccines that can deal with new variants and strengthening of the regulatory mechanisms Unless there is a new variant there will not be a third wave of the size and consequences that we saw in the second wave What we will see is local flare-ups where there are unprotected populations and where the virus has not been before Kang saidThe second wave of coronavirus in the country between March and May killed thousands and infected lakhs overwhelming the health infrastructure Are we done with COVID No we are not Are we going to be done with COVID Not anytime in the near future she added Kang a professor with Christian Medical College Vellore was speaking in a virtual event at the CII Lifesciences ConclaveLast month Manindra Agrawal a scientist with IIT-Kanpur who is in the three-member team of experts tasked to project the surge in cases had said the country may see a third wave peaking between October-November if a more virulent mutant of coronavirus emerges by Septembe Kang said the Indian vaccine industry has been absolutely phenomenal in dealing with the pandemic but it still has a long way to go I cant say the same thing about the regulatory system as people know about our regulatory systems But it is something we should use as a lesson for the future because we really really need informed strong regulators that work with industries to show what is required she said Kang also stressed the need for a translational research ecosystem of clinical researchers that are willing to take risk and are supported by the government and academia She said new technologies carry risks and there is a need for a regulatory system that is prepared for clinical risks We need the academic medical environments that work with the industry to make sure that we can safely test these interventions in people We do not have this at this time so strengthening regulation is key She said surveillance diagnostics is still dependent very heavily on imports The routine PCR kits are being made by many companies in the country but the best laboratories are not yet using those tests she observed We have to recognise that we need to be thinking about the quality of what we use so that we use what we make in diagnostics just as we do in vaccines and in drugs and in terms of sequencing she said In another seminar during the conclave Krishna Ella Chairman Managing Director of Bharat Biotech said Indian vaccine manufacturers have tremendously contributed globally as two of the three children across the world are jabbed by Indian vaccines He said the Indian industry was more focused on childrens vaccines and the shift is happening towards adult vaccines We need clinical trial centers across the country and have partnerships with countries all over the world especially in South East Asia Africa and Latin America he saidThe access to supply chain for reusables re-agents in biologics and manufacturing is imperative and it is important that we indigenise a lot of these requirements so we dont have any supply chain disruptions Kiran Mazumdar Shaw Executive Chairperson Founder Biocon said She added The future belongs to biotech bioscience and biopharma and we need to invest right now We need to create a conducive environment to provide the necessary risk capital to scale up This would require specialised venture funds PTI UZMPR TIR TIR

New Delhi Sep 17 PTI The festive season and whether or not people adhere to COVID-19-appropriate behaviour during this period will be key deciding factors behind a third wave of the pandemic experts said on Friday and warned people against lowering their guard Also the emergence of a new variant may become the driving force for a third wave as it would have more chances of transmitting rapidly in super-spreader events like festive gatherings and celebrations they said In the context of rapid immunisation and non-emergence of any new variant of SARC-CoV-2 in recent months the biggest risk factor for a third wave would be people lowering their guards during the festive season said Dr N KArora chairman of the COVID-19working group of the National Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation NTAGI Social and religious gatherings may facilitate rapid spread of delta virus among those who are still susceptible to infection Therefore it is strongly advisable that people religiously follow Covid-appropriate behaviour and the administration takes strict measures to discourage social gatherings Arora said Currently there is a declining trend of COVID-19 cases and we are in a pretty good situation However the coming few weeks with the festive season ongoing and with that associated changes of decrease in Covid-appropriate behaviour large gatherings and super-spreading events can be a deciding factor for the third wave AIIMS Director Randeep Guleria said He said the next two-three months are crucial in terms of preventive strategies for the country to continue to be in a good position Medical epidemiologist and public health expert Chandrakant Lahariya said even though daily new COVID-19 cases are low and stabilised across the majority of Indian states gatherings -- no matter large or small -- across the world have resulted in spike in cases Therefore the next three months -- the festive season in India -- is very crucial If people especially those who are not fully vaccinated avoid any gathering or get-together we have a chance to delay the next wave he said What would happen starting next year when a majority of the adult Indian population is vaccinated is lot much dependent upon evolving scientific understanding about how long immunity last emergence of a new variant of concern and a few other unknowns However by then we would be in the New Year And my early New Year 2022 wish is that the Indian policy makers use more of science to plan and implement pandemic response strategy he said India may see a third wave of COVID-19 peaking between October and November if a more virulent mutant than the existing ones emerge by September but its intensity is expected to be much lower than the second wave a scientist involved in the mathematical modelling of the pandemic had said in August Manindra Agrawal an IIT-Kanpur scientist who is part of the three-member team of experts that has been tasked with predicting any surge in infections said if no new virulent emerges then the situation is unlikely to change If the third wave peaks the country may see only 1 lakh daily cases as against more than 4 lakh when the deadly second wave was at its peak in May The second wave killed thousands and infected several lakh Dr V K Paul NITI Aayog Member Health said at a press briefing on Thursday that overall there is stabilisation in COVID-19 cases and Kerala has also reported a drop in cases Mizoram is a state of concern but we hope conditions will improve there by fast vaccination and pandemic response and containment In the coming two-three months we need to be cautious that there is no upsurge It is also the period of festivities and also when flu cases risewe request everyone to be careful and retain the gain that we have achieved in the pandemic management he said He also requested every state district municipality to prepare to tackle the surge by giving home care and make preparation in hospitals and human resources and oxygen requirements PTI PLB SMN SMN

New Delhi Aug 30 PTI India may see a third wave of COVID-19 peaking between October and November if a more virulent mutant than the existing ones emerge by September but its intensity is expected to be much lower than the second wave a scientist involved in the mathematical modelling of the pandemic said on Monday Manindra Agrawal an IIT-Kanpur scientist who is part of the three-member team of experts that have been tasked with predicting any surge in infections said if no new virulent emerges then the situation is unlikely to change If the third wave peaks the country may see only 1 lakh daily cases as against more than 4 lakh when the deadly second wave was at its peak in May The second wave killed thousands and infected several lakh Status Quo is when no new mutant comes and New Variant is when 50 more infectious mutant comes by September As one can see the only scenario with some semblance of third wave is New Variant one for epsilon 133 In this scenario new cases rise to 1 lakh per day Agrawal tweeted Last month the model suggested that the third wave could peak between October and November and the daily cases could shoot between 15 lakh to 2 lakh every day if a more virulent mutant of SARS-CoV2 drive fresh infections However no mutant that was more infectious than the Delta which drove the infections during the third wave emerged Last weeks forecast was the same but only the range of daily cases has been brought down to 1-15 lakh in the latest one With the fresh data the daily infections are further expected to drop in the range of a lakh Agrawal said the fresh data comprising the vaccinations that have taken place in July and August the sero-surveys that gave insights about the anti-bodies were factored in while assuming the scenarios According to a study by the researchers of Institute of Mathematical Sciences the R or the Reproductive value of the coronavirus pandemic was 089 It is necessary that the R value is under one that can help arrest the spread of infection Vaccination has been the biggest weapon worldwide to combat coronavirus and more than 63 crore doses have been administered in the country according to the CoWIN dashboard PTI PR SMN SMN